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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-05-17T21:05:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-17T21:05Z
CME Note: CME associated with M7.2 flare of AR3685. There is a very brief possible flux rope signature starting around 2024-05-20T06Z with separation of magnetic field components, drop in density and temperature and mild increase of magnetic field to 8nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-20T06:16Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-20T20:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-05-18T00:39Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 950
Longitude (deg): 50E
Latitude (deg): 28S
Half-angular width (deg): 43

Notes: Seemingly double structured CME, with bulk ejecta to the east. Reanalysed parameters for fit. 
Space weather advisor: CL

Lead Time: 43.77 hour(s)
Difference: -13.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-05-18T10:30Z

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